Rethinking our population ‘problem’

Be prepared for many more people, especially foreigners, in our midst – this was the message that Deputy Prime Minister and Home Affairs Minister Wong Kan Seng delivered in his speech to Parliament on Thursday.

Like it or not, Singaporeans will have to jostle for living space and opportunities with migrants from other lands. Some of these migrants will cause only a temporary spike in Singapore’s demographic data, leaving almost as soon as they have arrived; others will, as DPM Wong says, “sink roots here” to become Permanent Residents or Singaporean citizens. A rough estimate of the number of new citizens a year is 20000. Add this number by 60000 for PRs and the tens of thousands of transient workers, and you can imagine the swelling ranks in the population of Singapore.

No doubt, this continued rise in immigrant numbers has plenty of implications and concerns for Singaporeans. Xenophobia, job security fears and identity issues are just a few which must be thoroughly debated and considered by Singaporeans. The one I want to tackle, however, is perhaps the underlying assumption on which Singapore’s open immigration policies are built upon.

A “shrinking population (leads to) a declining Singapore.” This is not a foreign phrase. DPM Wong mentioned it in his speech; politicians and the media often echo the notion; the younger generation has it drummed into them repeatedly in schools and society. An ageing population and a falling Total Fertility Rate: this is the ultimate doomsday scenario for Singapore. It signifies the start of the end of our sustained economic progress, GDP growth and standard of living. Everything we have worked so hard over the years to achieve may be unraveled. Hence, it must never happen.

Ideally, Singaporeans should be able to replace themselves, to prevent our population from shrinking and to keep our economy growing. Unfortunately, the TFR is consistently low. As a result, foreigners have to be roped in to fill the place of us stubborn Singaporeans. And if the TFR continues to fall, more foreigners must come to prevent our population from shrinking.

But I would like to pose the question: is a shrinking population necessarily a declining one? We need to dissect this long-held truism. Firstly, our population is not shrinking, yet. As of 2009, Singapore’s population stands at 4.98 million, registering a 2.5% growth rate as compared to last year. This rise is all thanks to the influx of foreign migrants (permanent or transient) and – surprise, surprise – babies from Singaporeans themselves. The 37000 babies born in 2009 – even though they fell short of the 60000 babies we apparently need to replace our resident population – was more than sufficient to make up for the annual death rate of about half that number.

As such, even without the extra boost from foreigners, our population is still growing, albeit at a slower pace. What about in the future? DPM Wong said that “if our TFR remains the same, and we do not allow immigrants to settle here, our resident population will start to shrink as early as 2025 because deaths will outstrip births.” In this extreme scenario, our population is likely to peak at about 5 million before starting to decline in 2025. Sure, it is far short of the 6.5 million people that was set as a target for 40 odd years from now, but why do we need so many people in our tiny island?

One thread of argument is that our society is ageing, leading to a high dependency ratio where fewer working adults have to support more elderly people. Hence, to prevent this from becoming a strain on our economy, we need to increase the pool of young people (and raise the retirement age).

However, it is only natural that a greater proportion of the population consists of elderly people when our life expectancy increases. And as we continue to make advancements in healthcare, this percentage is set to grow even further. If we rectify this ‘problem’ by boosting our younger population, there will be an immediate respite in the dependency ration, but also an even greater spike in the proportion of the elderly in 50 years time when these people hit reach their golden years. In short, such short-sighted measures would only result in a vicious cycle where population grows and grows.

The truth is, populations do not and cannot grow forever. Natural resources are finite and need to be distributed amongst the populace. You may have heard of the Malthusian catastrophe where population growth declines sharply once it has outstripped food production. While Thomas Malthus was wrong in leaving out the exponential impact of technology on food production, his point on the finiteness of natural resources still hold true. There is only this much from which we humans can extract from the planet. What are the implications of an increasing Singapore population on a land with little natural resources?

Thus, keeping population numbers in check is imperative. We belong to an epoch where the threat of anthropogenic-induced climate change to our human race is acknowledged, an age where we must rethink our ways of living. In Singapore, our steady population and economic growth over the years has been on the backs of high-carbon, high-resource use. It is no surprise that we are one of the world’s highest per capita emitters of carbon dioxide. Such a lifestyle is neither sustainable nor desirable for the future of Singaporeans and the rest of the world.

It is essential that every Singaporean think about what kind of home he or she wants to live in.  Do we want to be self-sustainable, or depend on our neighbours for food and water, and on finite minerals and gases buried miles beneath the surface for our energy? Do we want to jostle with many more people along the roads or aisles of supermarkets, or have quality living space? A self-sufficient Singapore can only support a smaller optimum population, but if I am allowed to speculate, a population with a better quality of life.